Download Accounting for Climate Change: Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas by Daniel Lieberman, Matthias Jonas, Zbigniew Nahorski, Sten PDF

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By Daniel Lieberman, Matthias Jonas, Zbigniew Nahorski, Sten Nilsson

Uncertainty research is a key part of nationwide greenhouse gases stock analyses. the problems which are raised by way of the authors during this quantity, and the function that uncertainty research performs in lots of in their arguments and/or proposals, spotlight the significance of such efforts. assurance comprises: bottom-up as opposed to top-down emission stock methods, compliance and verification matters, and the position of uncertainty in emissions buying and selling schemes.

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Extra resources for Accounting for Climate Change: Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories - Verification, Compliance, and Trading

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Instead, we are often given a single emission value or activity factor that supposedly is a census of the entire population rather than a statistical sample, and so is unrepeatable. Our uncertainty estimate in this case represents an assessment by one or more experts of the probabilities that the estimate differs from the true value by “x “ ,” partly based on the experts’ general experiences of similar estimation problems and inventory data and partly based on the experts’ understanding about the country-specific inventory, such as possible doubleor undercounting of emissions.

2007) for a thorough review. More understanding regarding the uncertainty of national inventories can be brought in by new – possibly independent – studies, not by applying existing uncertainty denominators to yet another country. As long as no new input information regarding the uncertainties of the respective inventory input is provided, the assessment of country inventory uncertainties for additional countries will, for the most part, provide results that are similar to the uncertainty assessments that are currently available; or it will yet again show the contribution of subjective assumptions.

Within this system, adherence to accounting rules rather than attempting to reflect a real material flow situation must be the first priority. The intercountry comparison (“fair burden sharing”) – not the assessment of actual emissions – must be the ultimate goal. Such an accounting system needs to be based on scientific knowledge and could derive from existing information (Houghton et al. 1997), but the choice of parameters or approaches by country experts should be kept to the minimum. Once fixed, the system should be kept constant for the commitment period.

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